Linking climate change with pregnancy outcomes
2020 Data from PMA Ethiopia
Kathryn Grace, Matt Gunther, Jiao Yu
University of Minnesota
Highlights
Heat exposure during pregnancy is associated with increased risks for spontaneous miscarriage and stillbirth.
However, women develop strategies for mitigating these risks over time.
We find evidence that women who have lived in a hot place for many years are less likely to experience a miscarriage or stillbirth following heat exposure during pregnancy.
PMA Ethiopia - 2020 Survey
Women report all pregnancy outcomes within 3 years
Must have resided near sample cluster (•) for 2 years (<10 km)
and provide
number years residing in current region
Measuring Heat Exposure
We use a daily maximum temperature record, CHIRTS Tmax
- 0.05 arc-degree resolution
- Daily measurements 1980-2020
- Combines satellite images with local station data
multiple thresholds
Heatwave defined as
3+ days reaching threshold
Pregnancy exposure measured at sample cluster.
Precise to 10 km.
Lifetime exposure measured by residence in region.
Spatial mean adjusted for population density.
Likelihood of miscarriage / stillbirth
For each heat measure, we define lifetime exposure tertiles relative to each woman’s length of residence in her region.
These were interacted with a corresponding measure of pregnancy exposure in a binary logistic regression model for spontaneous miscarriage or stillbirth.
Heat Measure: Pregnancy Days Reaching 30° C
Heat Measure: Pregnancy Heatwaves Reaching 32° C
Controls include: mother’s age, partnership status, educational background, household wealth, religion, pregnancy intentions at conception, and clustered fixed effects for sample strata (region + urban).